Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 38 analysis: captain picks ranked by expected points, the most-transferred players, low-ownership differentials, and fixture difficulty for every team.
Expected points (xPts) from FPL's model, weighted by fixture difficulty. Captain the player with the best combination of form, fixture, and ownership risk.
1
Guéhi
MCI · DEF · £5.1m · 34.5% owned
30.5 xPts
AVL
2
Cherki
MCI · MID · £6.3m · 9.3% owned
20.5 xPts
AVL
3
Wieffer
BHA · MID · £4.9m · 0.7% owned
18.5 xPts
MUN
4
Okafor
LEE · MID · £5.5m · 0.9% owned
16.5 xPts
@WHU
5
Doku
MCI · MID · £6.4m · 2.6% owned
16.5 xPts
AVL
6
Bijol
LEE · DEF · £3.9m · 1.1% owned
15.5 xPts
@WHU
Most Transferred Inthis GW
Players the FPL community is buying — a signal of consensus value, though high volume also means the price may have already moved.
1
Haaland
MCI · FWD · £14.5m · 59.9% owned
+209K
AVL
2
Cherki
MCI · MID · £6.3m · 9.3% owned
+201K
AVL
3
Calvert-Lewin
LEE · FWD · £5.6m · 11.6% owned
+172K
@WHU
4
Senesi
BOU · DEF · £5.2m · 23.2% owned
+167K
@NFO
5
Guéhi
MCI · DEF · £5.1m · 34.5% owned
+156K
AVL
6
Scott
BOU · MID · £5.0m · 2.9% owned
+140K
@NFO
Differentials<10% owned · in form
Low-ownership picks with strong recent form. A haul from any of these moves you past the pack — the rank gain is double that of a template player.
1
N.Williams
NFO · DEF · £4.7m · 3.8% owned
13.0 form
BOU
2
Mateta
CRY · FWD · £7.5m · 6.9% owned
12.0 form
ARS
3
Mavropanos
WHU · DEF · £4.4m · 0.5% owned
12.0 form
LEE
4
Beto
EVE · FWD · £5.0m · 2.9% owned
11.5 form
@TOT
5
Cherki
MCI · MID · £6.3m · 9.3% owned
10.0 form
AVL
6
Wieffer
BHA · MID · £4.9m · 0.7% owned
9.5 form
MUN
GW38 Fixture Difficulty
FDR 1–2 = green (easy), 3 = amber (neutral), 4–5 = red (hard). Target players from FDR 1–2 teams for premium captaincy and cheap differential value.
BURvs Wolves
FDR 1
EVE@ Spurs
FDR 2
LEE@ West Ham
FDR 2
WHUvs Leeds
FDR 2
WOL@ Burnley
FDR 2
ARS@ Crystal Palace
FDR 3
BOU@ Nott'm Forest
FDR 3
BHAvs Man Utd
FDR 3
CHE@ Sunderland
FDR 3
FULvs Newcastle
FDR 3
LIVvs Brentford
FDR 3
MCIvs Aston Villa
FDR 3
NEW@ Fulham
FDR 3
NFOvs Bournemouth
FDR 3
SUNvs Chelsea
FDR 3
TOTvs Everton
FDR 3
BRE@ Liverpool
FDR 4
CRYvs Arsenal
FDR 4
MUN@ Brighton
FDR 4
AVL@ Man City
FDR 5
Price Risers This GW
Players who have already risen in price this gameweek. Buy before the next price update if you want them at current value.
Senesi
BOU · £5.2m
+£0.1m
Van Hecke
BHA · £4.6m
+£0.1m
Welbeck
BHA · £6.3m
+£0.1m
Haaland
MCI · £14.5m
+£0.1m
Mainoo
MUN · £4.7m
+£0.1m
Anderson
NFO · £5.6m
+£0.1m
Injury & Doubt Alerts>5% owned
EkitikéInjured
Achilles injury - Expected back 01 Jul
25.9% owned
J.TimberDoubt — 75% chance
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
22.7% owned
O'ReillyDoubt — 75% chance
Muscle injury - 75% chance of playing
13.1% owned
ChalobahDoubt — 75% chance
Lack of match fitness - 75% chance of playing
10.5% owned
KudusInjured
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
9.3% owned
SakaDoubt — 75% chance
Achilles injury - 75% chance of playing
7.4% owned
Budget Picks≤ £6.0m · best value/form
High-value budget options with good form and fixtures — ideal for freeing up funds for premium picks elsewhere.
Guéhi
DEF · £5.1m
AVL
Form 15.034.5% owned5.2 PPG
N.Williams
DEF · £4.7m
BOU
Form 13.03.8% owned3.7 PPG
Mavropanos
DEF · £4.4m
LEE
Form 12.00.5% owned3.9 PPG
Beto
FWD · £5.0m
@TOT
Form 11.52.9% owned2.6 PPG
Wieffer
MID · £4.9m
MUN
Form 9.50.7% owned4.0 PPG
SEE HOW THESE PICKS FIT YOUR SQUAD
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Top captain options for GW38 based on expected points and fixtures: Guéhi (30.5 xPts, 34.5% owned); Cherki (20.5 xPts, 9.3% owned); Wieffer (18.5 xPts, 0.7% owned).
What are the best FPL transfers for GW38?+
The most transferred-in players heading into GW38 are: Haaland (209K transfers in), Cherki (201K transfers in), Calvert-Lewin (172K transfers in).
What are the best FPL differentials for GW38?+
Top differentials (under 10% ownership) for GW38: N.Williams (3.8% owned, form 13.0); Mateta (6.9% owned, form 12.0); Mavropanos (0.5% owned, form 12.0).
When is the FPL GW38 deadline?+
The FPL Gameweek 38 deadline is Sunday 24 May at 13:30 (UK time). All transfers and captain picks must be made before this time.